Discussion AAP Wins Delhi Assembly Elections

NinadG

EntMnt Contributor
Finest Member
Two views on the Delhi polls.....one from a financial newspaper & other from ultra-leftist news website...........

Why opinion polls predict an AAP victory in Delhi

Kejriwal in his public meetings took up issues which has garnered him a strong support in Delhi

Almost all opinion polls have predicted a victory in Saturday’s Delhi Assembly election for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). After suggesting a Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win in last year’s Lok Sabha elections and all other states that went to polls since then — nearly correctly— why could these opinion polls this time be in favour of a party born a little more than two years ago? This could largely be attributed to AAP’s comeback campaigning.

Sensing a breakaway among its core middle-class supporters, AAP had started its election campaign much before opponents BJP and the Congress, and the top leaders of the party have held close to 700 jan sabhas(public meetings).

Why opinion polls predict an AAP victory in Delhi | Business Standard News
 

NinadG

EntMnt Contributor
Finest Member
Two charts that explain why it would be silly to presume the AAP has already won in Delhi
Pollsters got it entirely wrong in the last Delhi elections.

The Aam Aadmi Party knows better than most that an election isn’t over till it’s over. As campaigning comes to a close in the city, the opinion polls and the mood in the capital seem entirely on the party’s side. The Bharatiya Janata Party seems to be getting more desperate by the day. People are talking as if the AAP has won the Delhi elections already, with party chief Arvind Kejriwal and other leaders talking of them grabbing more than 40 seats out of 70 in the Assembly.

1423131527-469_Difference-between-Opinon-Polls-and-Results-Delhi-Election-2013-Poll-Average-Election-Result-Gap-chartbuilder.png


1423131589-1317_Difference-between-Opinion-Polls-and-Results-Delhi-LS-2014-Poll-Average-Election-Result-Gap-chartbuilder.png


So while the opinion polls might be a good indicator of sentiment, they are by no means an accurate predictor of what exactly will happen, especially when the margin in 10 seats in the capital was a matter of just 2000 votes.

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