Atleast now everyone will agree that India would win the cup...............
TPI World Cup Predictor: Shocks and surprises
While the players are building up to cricket's ultimate tournament by battling it out on the pitch, cricket fans are keeping themselves busy by haggling with their friends, convincing of why this world cup belongs to their team.
This predictive model of the upcoming tournament is an attempt to change that. While the purpose is by no means to provide a definitive answer and say outright that a particular team will win — which, it goes without saying, is an impossible feat — there is still value in finding out what the numbers point to. The robot in New Zealand predicted a triumph for Afghanistan, as unlikely as that may appear, let's see what our predictor points to.
At its core, our model tries to predict the total score for a team. To achieve this, we treat all 15 members of the team as batsmen and predict their scores given their form, performance versus bowling attack and performance against the pitch/conditions.
Batsman form is the Runs per Inning (RPI) achieved by the batsman in his last 15 ODI games. AB de Villiers tops this ranking, coming in at an otherworldly RPI of nearly 60. For players with less than 15 batting innings, such as Adam Milne, we use their career batting average.
To ensure that bowler versus batsman contests are captured with accuracy — the Steyn-Hafeez contest was taken as a model for this — we use ball-by-ball data to find each player's performance against the bowlers he has faced.
We compare pitches that will be used in the World Cup with pitches that a batsman has played on to predict a score.
We average the scores from these three methods to get a batsman's score. Team scores are compared to determine the winner.
A detailed description of the TPI model can be found here.
Read more at: TPI World Cup Predictor: Pakistan lose to India, beat South Africa! - Pakistan - DAWN.COM
TPI World Cup Predictor: Shocks and surprises
While the players are building up to cricket's ultimate tournament by battling it out on the pitch, cricket fans are keeping themselves busy by haggling with their friends, convincing of why this world cup belongs to their team.
This predictive model of the upcoming tournament is an attempt to change that. While the purpose is by no means to provide a definitive answer and say outright that a particular team will win — which, it goes without saying, is an impossible feat — there is still value in finding out what the numbers point to. The robot in New Zealand predicted a triumph for Afghanistan, as unlikely as that may appear, let's see what our predictor points to.
At its core, our model tries to predict the total score for a team. To achieve this, we treat all 15 members of the team as batsmen and predict their scores given their form, performance versus bowling attack and performance against the pitch/conditions.
Batsman form is the Runs per Inning (RPI) achieved by the batsman in his last 15 ODI games. AB de Villiers tops this ranking, coming in at an otherworldly RPI of nearly 60. For players with less than 15 batting innings, such as Adam Milne, we use their career batting average.
To ensure that bowler versus batsman contests are captured with accuracy — the Steyn-Hafeez contest was taken as a model for this — we use ball-by-ball data to find each player's performance against the bowlers he has faced.
We compare pitches that will be used in the World Cup with pitches that a batsman has played on to predict a score.
We average the scores from these three methods to get a batsman's score. Team scores are compared to determine the winner.
A detailed description of the TPI model can be found here.
Read more at: TPI World Cup Predictor: Pakistan lose to India, beat South Africa! - Pakistan - DAWN.COM
